The No. 1 pick must change teams in the future? Can t get MVP? ESPN team predicts Flag s career prospects

(This article was published on August 7. The author is ESPN's reporter team. The content of the article does not represent the translator's views.)

As the most optimistic American rookie since LeBron James, Cooper Flag will attract much attention no matter which team is selected by. After experiencing a season full of changes, the Mavericks recruited him with unprecedented luck, which added countless highlights.

This also puts Flag in a rare position: as a No. 1 pick, he has the potential to contribute to a winning team in his rookie season.

"We are in the mode of winning in the present, so he can contribute to it, but at the same time he is the future of the team," Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison said at a press conference for Flag in July.

As veterans of the existing core lineup gradually enter the end of their careers, how many victories can the Mavericks win in Flag's rookie season and beyond? When will he become an All-Star player? Will future MVP awards and championships belong to Flag?

Our panel of experts—composed of ESPN writers, journalists, editors and analysts—predicted these issues, and Flag is preparing for his first NBA training camp. (At the end of each chapter, the team from ESPN will vote on the question.)

The Mavericks will rank first in the new season?

An interesting question: Who is the last No. 1 pick to play in the playoffs in his rookie season?

In fact, it was a draw: Fultz and Ben Simmons achieved the feat for the Sixers together in the 2017-18 season. The "process" that the Sixers believed in finally brought the rewards of making the playoffs after Simmons' rookie season. At that time, the biggest reason for Philadelphia's jump from 28 to 52 was that Embiid played twice as many games as he had in the previous three years.

Therefore, it does require some unique conditions to allow the No. 1 pick to experience the playoffs at such an early stage. Flag plays for the Mavericks - a team that just entered the NBA Finals a few months ago, then traded a perennial MVP competitor in its peak period. The general manager claimed that it was to win immediately, but the team fell into the lottery zone and won the No. 1 pick with a 1.8% chance. This situation is indeed unique.

Flag is expected to be the soon-to-be-powered starter, but he will not be expected to take too much responsibility like a rookie, as he has experienced veterans around him, especially former No. 1 pick and ten-time All-Star Anthony Davis, who is the main reward in Doncic's trade. The key factor in the playoffs of the Mavericks could be the influence of another former No. 1 pick and a future Hall of Famer. When will Kyrie Irving recover from a tear of the ACL in the left knee? If he can return this season, can he return to the All-Star form and contribute to a team that desperately needs his offensive creativity? -TimMacMahon

Missed the playoffs: 3.8%

Playoffs: 73.1%

Score to the playoffs (ranked 5-6): 23.1%

Have a home advantage in the first round of the playoffs (ranked top 4): 0%

How many series can Flag, Irving and Davis win in his career? Nearly two-thirds of experts believe that the Mavericks, with Flagg, Davis and Irving as the core, can win at most two series. On the other hand, about 15% of experts are optimistic that they can win at least four playoff series.

Given the ACL torn injury that Irving suffered in March and the fact that he and Davis were 33 and 32 years old, respectively, it seems more logical to expect lower expectations. From an age point of view, these veterans are likely to end their peak soon.

The Mavericks' winning window is right in front of him. But Irving still needs time to recover after his return. Similarly, despite his outstanding talent, Flag is still a rookie after all—even the best player, he often encounters some difficulties or hits the "rookie wall" at this stage. Of course, this is not limited to this season. But the sooner the Mavericks can win a series with this core lineup, and the sooner they can stay healthy, and let these three appear on the court at the same time, the more likely they will be to surpass experts' expectations - Chris Herring

0: 7.7%

1: 30.8%

2: 26.9%

3: 19.2%

4: 3.8%

5: 7.7%

6 or more: 3.8%

In which year will Flag be selected as the All-Star for the first time?

According to our expert panel, the probability of Flag being selected as an All-Star as a rookie is very low. Only Griffin has been selected for the All-Star in his rookie season in the past two decades, and he missed his first season due to left knee surgery, which is equivalent to a "red shirt" year. In addition, due to changes in the All-Star game system, there is also uncertainty about the All-Star lineup next year. If the league takes the form of Team America vs. World Team, Flag will face fierce competition from the American player pool.

However, it is more common for sophomore players to be selected for All-Stars, with eight players doing this in the past eight years: Vinbanyama, Bankairo, Lamelo Ball, Zion, Doncic, Trae Young, Ben Simmons and Embiid. Most star-level players usually reach this level in their third year, so our expert panel believes that Flag will reach this level in at least the third year - ZachKram

2025-26 season selection: 3.8%

2026-27 season: 30.8%

2027-28 season: 57.7%

2028-29 season: 7.7%

How many MVPs will Flag win?

First, let's face the reality: the possibility of Flag becoming the first American MVP player since an international player won the MVP for seven consecutive years is slim. Don't expect too much about this. American stars like Edwards, Cunningham, Tatum and Brunson have a better chance of achieving this feat.

This is not to say that Flag won't win the MVP in the end.

But it is worth noting that in the NBA Summer League, some sources pointed out some minor flaws that Flag had in the game that he needed to address in the first few seasons of his career to reach the expected heights. In addition, there are some factors beyond his control, such as the overall performance of the team, media narrative and the performance of his NBA peers. As the most promising American No. 1 pick since James, Flag possesses comprehensive skills that will bring him constant attention in the MVP voting.

His offense and defense ability and pleasing game style give him the potential to win MVPs many times in his long career. However, various external factors complicate this prospect. We still remember that former Mavericks icon Doncic hadn't won an MVP in his career, even though it was generally believed that he would receive this honor multiple times - Michael C.Wright

Frager won't get an MVP: 34.6%

1: 46.2%

2: 15.4%

3: 0%

How many championships will Flag win?

It is not easy to win the championship, and even the No. 1 pick is no exception. Flag was the 41st No. 1 pick in the draft lottery era, with only 10 of the top 40 No. 1 picks (25%) winning the championship. This number may increase as the young No. 1 pick grows – the most recent No. 1 pick is Wiggins, who was selected in 2014 – but historical data shows that Flag's chances of winning the championship are not high. In this era, only the four No. 1 picks, Duncan, James, O'Neal and David Robinson, have won multiple championships.

However, several factors are beneficial to Flag. His prospects in the NBA are better than most top rookies, which is crucial for playoff results: Seven of the 15 No. 1 picks in the Lotto era who have been selected for the NBA All-American team have won the championship, and this ratio will be even higher if Towns or Edwards can win the championship in the future.

In addition, the Mavericks have far more talent than the teams that usually require rebuilding. Most of the No. 1 picks need the help of other No. 1 picks to win: for example, Irving, Anthony Davis and Howard won the championship only when they worked with James, while David Robinson and Glen Robinson won the championship next to Duncan.

For Flag, the most important background in his early career may be: he will soon partner with two former No. 1 picks, Davis and Irving, who have transformed their No. 1 pick into a championship ring - ZachKram

Fragr cannot win the championship: 7.7%

1: 76.9%

2: 7.7%

3: 7%

4 or more: 0%

How many teams will Flag play in his career?

Nowitzki set an example of loyalty for the Mavericks, playing for 21 seasons and becoming the longest player in NBA history for a single team. Given that fans were dissatisfied with Doncic's trade, the Mavericks were more motivated to keep Flag for a long time, after all, Doncic was once regarded as Nowitzki's natural successor.

However, it seems like a futile to predict that any player will stay on the same team throughout his career in the modern NBA. Only four of the top 50 players in the scoring list have never changed teams since the 21st century: Curry, Antetokounmpo, Booker and Jokic. Even so, it is still possible that several of these players will complete the transfer before the end of their careers. Judging from recent history, it is very likely that Flag will eventually leave the Mavericks - ZachKram

Frager's Mavericks: 3.8%

Frager's Mavericks: 3.8%

Frager's 3 teams: 34.6%

Frager's 4 teams or more: 7.7%

What will Flag be in the player ranking in the new season? It is rare for

rookies to enter the top 100, but Flag already had enough influence when he entered the NBA to win a place. The question is not whether he deserves to be selected, but how optimistic our ESPN group will eventually have about him.

I personally tend to be more conservative when estimating my performance in the rookie season. During the draft, it is one thing to predict a player’s career peak, but the initial adaptation period is an elusive variable, and each player’s adaptation is different. Flag is different from most other rookies – not only is he used to being young in his class, but he proved at Duke that he can handle top competition regardless of age. While I don't think the Mavericks will give him too many tasks to create offensive opportunities or expect him to be fully prepared for them right away, his defensive instinct, passing ability and tenacity can all help him as he adapts to a team that plans to remain competitive.

Without thinking, I would rank Flag between 76-100. Our group seemed more optimistic at this stage and was even already discussing this issue, which itself illustrates his strength and a bright future - JeremyWoo

Original text: ESPN

Translated by JayChan