[Japan-level battle! Osaka Gamba VS Kawasaki Forward: The physical fitness collapses in 4-day doubles? This victory and loss are hidden in these 3 details! 】

18:00 on July 20, 2025 (), the 24th round of Japanese vocational school will stage a "life-and-death battle" - Osaka Gamba is in the Matsushita Suita Stadium and fights Kawasaki forward! On one side is the "fringe team in the relegation zone" ranked 10th, and on the other side is the "middle-travel powerhouse" ranked 6th. This game is not only a battle for points, but also a "demonic mirror" of the two teams' recent state!

⚠️ Must-see before the game: 4 fatal details that determine the direction of the game!

1. The physical fitness in 4-day double competition sounds the alarm! Who is "exhausted" first?

The two teams just finished the Emperor's Cup 4 days ago: Osaka Gamba draws Yamagata 3-3 with Yamagata (midfielder presses wildly, but the back guard leaks into a sieve); Kawasaki striker draws SC Sagami 0-0 (passive defense throughout the game, relying on goalkeeper god to save his life). Only 4 days later in this game, physical fitness reserves became the key to winning and losing - Osaka Gamba averaged 112km in the last 6 games, and Kawasaki forwards were 108km, but Kawasaki players were older (average 28.5 years old), and their physical fitness recovery was slower!

2. Recent status: 50% winning rate, but the "gold content" is very different!

In the last 6 games, the two teams have both won 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (Osaka averaged 1.5 goals and conceded 1.3 goals; Kawasaki averaged 1.2 goals and conceded 1.3 goals), but the offensive efficiency is 1 times worse: Osaka shot 14.1 times per game (10.07 shots per game), while Kawasaki only scored 12.2 times per game (11.5 shots only scored 1 goal). What’s even more heartbreaking is that Osaka scored 1.1 goals in the second half of the last 6 games > Kawasaki’s 1.0 goals, the second half may become Osaka’s “turnover time”!

3. Historical confrontation: Kawasaki's "psychological shadow" is still there?

In the last 10 games, the two teams have evenly divided the scenery 3-3, but Kawasaki was "pressed on the ground" by Osaka: In April 2023, Osaka Gamba defeated Kawasaki 2-0; in July 2022, Kawasaki beat Osaka 4-0 (Osaka's defense made a mistake in that game). However, in the last 6 games, Osaka has a slight advantage in 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. Can Osaka, who plays at home, continue the "Kokawasaki" curse?

4. Value VS Panlu: Osaka is "a good match" but Kawasaki is even more "kicking"!

The whole Osaka team is worth 18.6 million euros (Kawasaki is only 13.6 million euros), but "more money does not necessarily mean winning" on the football field! Kawasaki won 3 and lost 3 in the last 6 games (stable state), Osaka won 2 and 1 and 3 lost 3 (large fluctuations); more importantly, Kawasaki ranked 6th in Japanese positions this season (4 places higher than Osaka), and her league status is more stable, and her desire to win is stronger!

🎯 Index mystery: draw + draw upset? Institutions are "betting" on this move!

Institutions generally draw hand-shares in the initial market (Australia, 36, etc.), with the main winning odds of 2.55-2.70, away winning 2.40-2.60, and the water level is close (no obvious "Lazio tendency"). What’s even more strange is: Betfair trading data shows that the draw is sought after - as of one day before the game, the draw volume was 110 Hong Kong dollars, accounting for 51.1% (the Eurasian disagreement in the past 7 days indicated that “the success rate of victory or draw is 83%”)!

What are institutions afraid of? Although Osaka is strong at home, its defense has been full of loopholes recently (conceded 7 goals in the last 6 games); Kawasaki's offense is weak, but its defense is stable (conceding 5 goals in the last 6 games). In this "spear and shield" show, the probability of winning or losing with a draw or a small score is extremely high!

🔮 Comprehensive prediction: Osaka is hard to win, Kawasaki is cold-proof! Most likely 1-1 or 0-1!

Although Osaka Gamba has an advantage in value, she has a physical disadvantage + unstable defense (confiscated 7 goals in the last 6 games), so it is too difficult to win; Kawasaki striker has a stable shift + historical confrontation (3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 6 games), but her offensive efficiency is low (11.5 shots and 1 goal), and the probability of winning more than 2 goals is extremely low.

Most likely result:

- Draw (1-1): Both sides attacked and defended each other, Osaka took the lead in the second half with a set piece, and Kawasaki equalized before the end of the game.

- Kawasaki Kosuke (0-1): Kawasaki used Osaka's physical fitness to decline and stole 1 goal through counterattack in the second half.

What do you think? Can Osaka Gamba defend her home court, or will Kawasaki striker continue his "nemesis" character? Chat in the comment area⚽️