Why should Mbeumo sell 70 million? What really determines the transfer price are these hidden variables

The first level of misunderstanding: price ≠ ability, it is "structure + scene pricing"

Many people see a quotation of 70 million, and their first reaction is: Where is Mbewumo worth the money? But professional football transfer pricing has long been no longer a simple logic of "compensation for ability to money".

The transfer price you see is actually the result of cross-calculating these variables:

The remaining years of the player contract + whether it has "delay option"

Does the buyer have a clear urgent need

Whether the seller has the initiative in time

Market reference (Benchmark), such as Cunya and Diaby's recent transfer prices

are internal transactions in the Premier League (= default 20% more expensive)

Mbeumo just hits these price increases: he has a 1-year + 1-year extension contract, Brentford is not short of money, Manchester United urgently needs a winger, and just spent 62.5 million to buy Cunya, and after all the weights are calculated, it is 70 million.

The second level of blind spot: Manchester United is not being slaughtered, but having loopholes in its own process

In recent years, there has been an invisible bug in the process of buying people in Manchester United - the technical team and the financial team are separated.

For example:

The technical team looks at players, and whether they see clearly is another way or not, but once the target is confirmed, it is "strongly recommended";

The financial team is only responsible for "making the transaction" and does not challenge the rationality of pricing in reverse;

The lack of real middlemen to evaluate: Is this value worth it? How strong is the alternative?

So under this architecture, once the technical team decides to "want him", the club will easily fall into a passive state of "buying for the sake of buying", and the price will be available.

The third layer of truth: Whether Mbeumo is worth it depends on the "scene adaptation value"

Tactically speaking, Mbeumo is a high-speed counterattack winger with good data performance, but the question is -

Is Manchester United fighting a counterattack now? The new coach Amorin is a control coach. What he wants is a winger who can draw in small spaces. Mbewumo's style may not be a hard-to-need reinforcement.

So the real question to ask is:

"Is he worth 70 million?", it is better to ask "Is he worth 70 million in Manchester United's current system?"

If you spend a lot of money to buy an unfit player, the "tactical loss rate" of this money is very high.

Hidden key variables: Brentford does not make money by selling people, but sells people knows very well about business tactics

Many people think that small and medium-sized balls like Brentford will rely on selling people to maintain finances, but in fact it is not.

In their income structure, broadcast income + brand operation is more important than selling people.

They don't sell a lot of people, but every time they "sell at high prices" and know how to block the market rhythm and psychological price.

Mbeumo is not a product that sells, but they are not afraid of dragging it out. If Manchester United doesn't buy it, it's impossible to continue using it next season. The initiative is not at all with Manchester United, which is the real reason for the "failure to kill prices".

The real lesson is not expensive, but Manchester United has not learned how to buy people yet.

Whether players are expensive is one thing, the key is whether the process of buying is rational.

Arsenal spent 100 million on Rice, but no one said it was expensive because he was the core of tactics;

Manchester United bought Anthony 85 million pounds, which is still a laughing stock because the wrong person + the price is expensive.

Mbeumo may not play poorly, but if it is another "head-slapping transaction", then the fault is not the seller, but the systemic problem that Manchester United has never solved.