Will Amen become the next Antetokounmpo?

Amen Thompson and Antetokounmpo have certain similarities in physical talent and defensive potential, but it is extremely unlikely to become the "Next Antetokounmpo" or even reach or exceed its height. Antetokounmpo's achievements are already "phenomenal" at the NBA's historical level, and Amen's development path, technical shortcomings and league environment all determine that he needs to cross a huge gap. The following is a detailed analysis from the core dimension:

1. Antetokounmpo's "historical height" is a difficult benchmark.

Antetokounmpo's career achievements are almost the ceiling level of "offensive and defense integration + team honor", which requires a perfect combination of talent, hard work, opportunities and the background of the times:

-Personal Honors: 2 MVPs (back to back, 1 unanimous vote), 1 Finals MVP, 1 Best Defensive Player, 7 Best Team First Team, 5 Best Defensive Team First Team, and 5 Best Defensive Team First Team. It is one of the only players in NBA history to win MVP, DPOY, championship and FMVP at the same time.

-Doral performance: Average 30+10+5 per game at its peak (such as 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks per game), able to defend from No. 1 to No. 5, lead the team to break through multiple single cores in the playoffs, and lead the team to reverse the Suns to win the championship in the finals.

-Technical evolution: From the early "Brother who can only rush to the basket" to the later development of mid-range, back-body and passing vision, and even the three-point shooting percentage is stable at more than 30% (the three-point shooting percentage in the past five seasons is 30%-35%), the transformation from "body flow" to "all-round core".

Achievements at this level not only require top talent, but also require 10 years of continuous evolution, absolute support for the team's core position, and a healthy body (Antetokounmpo's career attendance rate is extremely high). There are very few players in history who can reach this level, and only a few people such as James and Durant have been approached in the past 20 years.

2. The core gap between Amen and Antetokounmpo: talent limit and technical shortcomings

Although Amen has potential in physical conditions and defensive consciousness, the core difference between the two determines that his upper limit is difficult to reach Antetokounmpo:

1. The "magnitude gap" of physical talent

Antetokounmpo's physical talent is a bug-level existence of "cross-position": 2.11 meters height + 2.24 meters wingspan + top strength and explosive power, allowing him to carry the ball like a guard, and can also stick to the basket and protect the basket like a center. This combination of "height, wingspan, speed, and strength" is unique in NBA history.

Amen is 2.01 meters tall (focused on guard/swinger), with an arm span of 2.10 meters +. Although he is a "high-end" body type among guards, he is still a "dimensionality reduction gap" compared to Antetokounmpo - his strength, ability to end confrontation at the basket (Antetokounmpo's shooting percentage at the basket is 70%+ all year round), and defensive coverage (Antetokounmpo can defend from the outside to protecting the basket in the penalty area) are far inferior to Antetokounmpo.

2. "Essential Difference" on the offensive end

Antetokounmpo's offensive core is "breakthrough with the ball + dominance at the basket", and his passing ability is a derivative skill based on "breakthrough to attract double teams"; Amen's current offense is "no ball conversion + assisted pass", and lacks the core ability to create the ball:

- Although Antetokounmpo's shooting in the early years of his career, he can average 20+ at the basket with his physical talent. At the age of 22, he averaged 22.9 points, 8.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game, becoming the team's absolute core;

- Amen averaged 11.2 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists in the second season. He relied on fast breaks and teammates to feed his teammates on the offensive end (35% of the fast break score), and his singles were extremely low (only 3.2 points per game with a breakthrough score, with a shooting percentage of 42%), and his three-point shooting percentage was only 26.3%, and his mid-range stability was insufficient - ** The shooting shortcomings were more serious than Antetokounmpo's early days** (Angelson scored 25.7% from three-point shooting percentage at the age of 22, but his basket shooting percentage was 70.1%, while Amen shot only 58% from the basket).

3. The difference between role positioning and team needs

Antetokounmpo has been the absolute core of the Bucks since he entered the third year of his league. The team has built tactics around him (space shooter + defensive system), giving him unlimited ball rights and room for mistakes; while Amen is currently in a "support role" for the Rockets, and the team's core is Durant who has just been traded and Shin Kyung, the All-Star inside player. He is more likely to become a functional player of "defense + conversion + organization" rather than a "large core of ball holding".

If you cannot obtain core ball rights for a long time, it will be difficult for his ball-holding and passing vision to continue to evolve like Antetokounmpo.

3. Amen's "possibility": becoming a high-quality role player, rather than a historical superstar, Amen's advantage lies in his defensive potential (average of 1.3 steals + 1.3 blocks per game in the second season, top 20 in the league in defensive efficiency), conversion offensive efficiency (68% fast attack shooting percentage) and pass awareness (average of 5.9 assists per game, and still have a good turnover control). These traits are more suitable to be an "auxiliary star with an offense and defense" rather than an Antetokounmpo's "single-core leader".

If he can complete the following evolutions in the next 3-5 years, he may become an All-Star player:

- The three-point shooting percentage is stable at around 35% (solving space shortcomings);

- Improve the ability to break through the ball (the basket shooting percentage is increased from 58% to 65%+);

- Further strengthen the diversity of defensiveness (upgraded from "defense No. 1-3" to "the fourth position that can top the defense part").

But even if these are achieved, his cap is more likely to be closer to "Ben Simmons in health" or "Andre Iguodala in peak" - a quality defensive organizer than an MVP-level offensive and defensive core.

4. Conclusion: It is almost impossible to reach the height of Antetokounmpo

Antetokounmpo's success is a perfect combination of "physical talent + technical evolution + team training + opportunities for the times", and is an "alone case" at the historical level of the NBA. Amen Thompson has the potential to become an excellent player, but his height, limitations of offensive methods, projection shortcomings and team role positioning all determine that it is difficult for him to replicate Antetokounmpo's growth path.

For Amen, the more realistic goal is to become "the league's top defensive forward swingman + conversion offensive expert" and strive for All-Star performance; and Antetokounmpo's height is already a historical benchmark of "unable to meet", and there may be no more than 3 players who can achieve this achievement in the next 20 years.