Read this article to understand the Rockets contract extension for Durant: Freeing up $24 million in space, the operation is different from that of the Warriors and Spurs

On October 20, ESPN salary expert Pelton gave a detailed interpretation of Durant's two-year salary reduction of 90 million to renew his contract with the Rockets. The following is his analysis -

The Rockets have always been an exception when it comes to negotiating with star players. If he were in the Rockets' position, most teams in the league would directly provide Durant with the maximum contract extension he is eligible for - according to estimates, this contract could have exceeded US$120 million in two years.

Instead, the Rockets chose an unconventional strategy: "negotiation" in the true sense. About 12 months ago, a similar operation helped them complete a contract extension with center Shen Jing at a price below the maximum salary, although the cost was to add a player option in the final year of the contract (Durant also received a player option in this extension, but at the current stage of his career, this option may bring salary space flexibility to the Rockets).

The salary savings from this renewal are even more significant. Compared with the maximum salary extension, Durant's salary will be reduced by approximately US$15 million per season. In the era of the NBA's "additional threshold to the luxury tax threshold", this gap is crucial - this is in sharp contrast to the operations of the Warriors (after the introduction of Butler) and the Spurs (after the introduction of Fox). The latter two teams both directly provided maximum salary extensions after acquiring star players through trades.

For the Warriors, the signing of Butler later proved to be extremely valuable: his addition helped the Warriors eliminate the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs last season, and in the author's data-based model, this also makes the Warriors' prospects for the 2025-26 season extremely optimistic. However, "providing maximum salaries to aging stars" is still one of the reasons why many well-known players in the league (including Durant) have failed to lead the team to the expected success in recent years.

Frankly speaking, some people believe that Durant, who is about to turn 38 and may even reach 39, is no longer worthy of the maximum salary. A variety of factors are intertwined, making it difficult for people to intuitively detect the inevitable decline in Durant's competitive status.

First, the league's overall offensive data has skyrocketed. In the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons, Durant averaged 28 points per game, shooting about 50% from the field and 40% from the three-point range. He ranked second in the MVP voting for two consecutive seasons. Looking at the data alone, his performance in the 2024-25 season (averaging 26.6 points per game, shooting 53% from the field, and 43% from the three-point range) is similar to his peak, if not better.

However, it should be noted that at that time, NBA teams averaged about 105 points per game, and the league's average true shooting percentage (TS%) was about 53%; while last season, these two statistics rose to 113.8 points and 57.6% respectively. This means that the "gold content" of the same raw data in today's league has dropped significantly.

Durant is still one of the most efficient "high-volume scorers" in the league. Last season, among players who played at least 500 minutes and had a ball usage rate of at least 28%, only Jokic's true shooting percentage (66.2%) exceeded his 64.2%. Despite this, Durant's current efficiency is only 11% higher than the league average; in his peak period, even until the 2020-21 season with the Nets, his true shooting percentage was usually at least 16% higher than the league average, reaching a peak of 21% in the 2012-13 season.

In addition to the decline in efficiency, Durant's assist ability is also weakening. According to Basketball Reference, his 5.7 assists per 100 possessions were the lowest since the 2011-12 season. In addition, durability is also an issue: Durant is still averaging 36.5 minutes per game, which is not much different from his peak period (39.5 minutes), but the 2023-24 season is the only season after his Achilles tendon injury that he missed less than 18 games due to injury.

Durant's technical characteristics are very consistent with the Rockets, and there is reason to believe that this may help the Rockets perform better than their "win expectations" - and win expectations are directly related to the point difference.

In the past four seasons, among players who have played more than 25 games with a "score difference of 5 points or less", Durant's team has the highest winning rate: 40 wins and 22 losses, a winning rate of 64.5%. Last season, the Suns went 10-6 in tight games with Durant on the court and 0-3 without him. Improving the record through "close wins" helps the team perform beyond its point differential.

After completing Durant’s contract extension, the Rockets’ salary situation for the 2026-27 season becomes clearer. Durant's salary is US$45 million, and VanVleet chooses to exercise his US$25 million player option after suffering a season-ending anterior cruciate ligament tear. Then the Rockets will have nine players with a total salary of approximately US$186 million.

This means that, on the premise that the Rockets do not exceed the NBA's second luxury tax threshold, in addition to the minimum salary contract, they still have about $24 million in salary space to supplement the lineup-this amount is crucial. Whether it is to reach a contract extension with forward Ethan before the deadline for the last year of the first-round rookie contract, or to keep him as a restricted free agent next summer, this fund is enough to support the Rockets' operations.