ESPN experts predict Flag has a 76.9% chance of winning at least one championship
8:53am, 10 August 2025Basketball
How many NBA championships can Flag win?
Winning the championship is not easy, even for a player who was selected the first pick in the first round. In the draft era, Flag was the 41st player to be selected in the first round, and only 10 of the top 40 (i.e. 25%) won the championship. As younger first-round first-rounders mature, that total could increase—the last first-round first-rounder to win was Andrew Wiggins, the 2014 draft pick—but history shows that Flagg is unlikely to win the championship. In this era, the first-round picks with more than one title are Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal and David Robinson.
But several factors suggest that Flag is more likely to be selected as the first pick than average. His potential assessment when entering the NBA is better than most top rookies, which is crucial for the playoff ending: Seven of the 15 No. 1 picks who have won multiple All-NBA All-NBA All-Squad nominations in the draft era have won the championship, and that number may increase if Carl Anthony Towns or Anthony Edwards can hold the trophy. The Mavericks also have more talent than those rebuilding teams that usually have priority in the draft. Most No. 1 picks need the help of other No. 1 picks to win: Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard, for example, all won the championship while playing with James, while David Robinson and Glen Robinson won the championship with Duncan.
For Flag, who is about to enter his career, this is probably the best starting point to stand out in the most weighted title race: He will soon be side by side with Davis and Irving, and the two former No. 1 picks have already converted that draft pick into a championship ring with their performance.
ESPN experts predict that the probability of Flagg winning the championship is as follows: it can be said that he defeated Harden and Paul Westbrook in seconds! It is basically a foregone conclusion that they have no championship for life!
0: 7.7%
1: 76.9%
2: 7.7%
3: 7.7%
4 or more: 0%
As the son of the United States, Flag, who is known as the next LeBron James, do you think he has a chance to win the championship?
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