Data talk! Now the impact of NBA home advantage on winning and losing continues to weaken, and three-pointers are the key to winning

May 11th News Today, the Timberwolves defeated the Warriors away, rewriting the series score to 2-1, and replacing the home advantage again.

Looking back at the regular season every year, NBA teams are fighting for playoff qualifications on the one hand, and on the other hand, fighting for the playoffs as good as possible. They fought in 82 regular season games just to get the best record possible, thus gaining a home advantage in one round, two rounds, and even the entire playoffs. This is a very tempting reward for the championship team - at least it means that in the key tiebreak, you can play in front of home fans.

However, now the home advantage seems to be losing his original glory. In the first round of the division semi-finals, the Cavaliers lost to the Pacers at home, the Celtics lost to the Knicks at home, the Thunder also lost to the Nuggets in the first game of the series, the Timberwolves lost to the Warriors at home, and the four higher-ranked teams lost to the first game at home, which is jaw-dropping, but in fact, this also reflects a trend in the NBA in recent years. Home games no longer seem to have as advantages as they used to be.

The home team's record in the NBA playoffs this year was only 26 wins and 24 losses, which is the lowest winning rate of the home team in the playoffs since 1981 (the 2020 playoffs were held in the "bubble" due to the epidemic and are not included in the comparison). In the 1981 playoffs, the home team's winning rate also fell below 50%, but that was just an occasional situation. The following year, the home team won about 60% of the playoffs and returned to historical normal in the following years. In fact, in the first 78 playoffs, the home team's winning rate exceeded 60% in 56 years.

But this has not been the case in recent years. Since 2018, the home team has not reached a 60% winning rate in the playoffs. Moreover, the home advantage in the most critical game, the winning rate in the tiebreak battle also declined. In the past, the tiebreaker match was once a "ballast stone" for home teams. In the first 73 seasons of the league, the home team's winning rate in the tiebreak match was as high as 79.1%. But since 2021, the home team has a record of 5 wins and 10 losses in tiebreaks. The Warriors won the tiebreak in Houston last week, and almost no one was surprised.

A few days ago, Warriors head coach Steve Cole came to talk about his home advantage and said: "I'm not sure whether the home advantage is still as important as before. I think the impact of three-pointers is too great. Previous games are more like a fight and more of a mid-range confrontation, and it is difficult for the opponent to suddenly become hot and take over the game."

As Cole said, the popularity of three-pointers is changing the structure of the league. The decline of home advantage began in the 2016-17 season, and it was also the node where the NBA three-point revolution broke out in full swing. This trend has not been reversed since then. Data shows that in recent years, the winning rate of the visiting team's three-point shooting has been increasing year by year. In the playoffs this season, the away team, who made more three-pointers than the home team, had a record of 12 wins and 9 losses, and the winning rate was the same as last year. Obviously hitting more three-pointers is the key to winning away games.

sounds for granted, but it was not the case before. As three-pointers become the tactical core of each team, the results of the game are increasingly affected by three-pointers, and winning the "three-point battle" almost means suppressing the home court advantage.

From 2011 to 2014, in the four years when the Warriors and Curry had not yet ruled the league, if the away team hit one more three-pointer than the home team, the winning rate was 46.2%. By 2016-2019 (the last four years before the epidemic), this number rose to 55%. Since 2022, this proportion has reached 60.9%.

In this year's playoffs, this trend may bring hope to several championship teams that are falling behind in the second round. If the home advantage is no longer the same as before, they also have the opportunity to fight back away and "steal" the series' victory.