The final suspense of Serie A: Will the championship playoffs appear for the first time? Napoli’s big win or a small victory?

(Since the two teams in the previous round have double draws, it proves that Serie A is omnipotent. So before a normal analysis of this game, I personally recommend closing my eyes to a championship play-off possibility, otherwise it will not be able to demonstrate the cleverness of the new competition system created by Serie A from the 22nd to 23rd season. The conditions are very simple. Napoli loses + Inter Milan draws in this round.)

The current situation of winning is very simple. Napoli can win, and Inter Milan is just a foil. Only when Naples is invincible will other possibilities appear. In terms of form, Napoli has drawn in the last two consecutive games, slowing down the pace of winning the championship. Whether it is subjective or objective factors, the suspense is finally preserved to the last round.

But this is still relatively lucky for Naples. After all, the last round was home game, and the opponent was Cagliari, who had just achieved the goal of relegation. Naturally, Cagliari must have been liberated from a very tense state at this time, and the desire for war is likely to be greatly reduced. It can be said that the time, place and people have stood on Naples again. At this time, all strength and state are unnecessary. Not to mention the data, the two goals concessions have already explained everything, and the only point of discussion is whether Napoli will defeat his opponent to win the championship. To put it another way, is Naples seeking stability or to strive for this championship in a more proactive way. According to the data, the increase from the initial low 1.75 loss to the current high 2 goals, which has not affected investors who are optimistic about the home team's small victory in one goal. It has only raised the requirements for investors who are optimistic about the big victory in Naples. However, with the results of Naples in recent rounds, this difficulty and compensation improvement are also reasonable. Therefore, there is not much directionality in terms of data in this field.

I personally believe that this game is more mainly based on fundamentals and takes Naples's psychology of winning the championship as the entry point. No matter how conservative Conte wants to be, he shouldn't want to continue playing in this game. Therefore, the safe space for two goals will still be actively fought for. Especially in the first half, we will be more proactive in building advantages, and even if we make mistakes, we still have time to make up for them. So the overall idea is that Napoli grabs a 2-0 advantage in the first half and seeks stability in the second half. As for the full game results, big wins and small wins are irrelevant to Naples.

Summary of the above, individuals prefer the home team to win by two goals or more in this game.