Both the East and West Finals have a 3-1 historical counterattack probability of only 4.4%, but the two US media believe that the East Finals are more variable than the West Finals

Indiana Pacers lead the New York Knicks 3-1, so that both the Eastern Conference Finals and the Western Conference Finals are 3-1. The difference is that the Eastern Conference Finals are the Pacers who have no home advantage lead 3-1, while the Western Conference Finals are the Thunder who holds the home advantage lead 3-1.

The promotion process of the two Eastern teams: Knicks 4-2 Pistons, Knicks 4-1 Celtics; Pacers 4-1 Bucks, Pacers 4-1 Cavaliers;

The promotion process of the two Western teams: Timberwolves 4-1 Lakers, Timberwolves 4-1 Warriors; Thunder 4-0 Grizzlies, Thunder 4-3 Nuggets;

Now Thunder 3-1 Timberwolves; Pacers 3-1 Knicks.

Throughout NBA history, the team that led 3-1 was ultimately the 283 teams advanced to the top and only 13 teams were reversed. In other words, the probability of the Pacers and Thunder advancing is as high as 95.6%, while the probability of the Timberwolves and the Knicks counterattack is only 4.4%. 47 teams led 3-1 in the NBA historical division finals, and only 3 teams have completed a counterattack, with a probability of counterattack only 6.4%. 44 teams have successfully advanced, with a probability of advancing 93.6%.

However, the two major predictions are quite different from the probability of the forecast of the Knicks and the Timberwolves' two teams behind the scores. For example, Polymarket predicts that the probability of the Knicks 4-3 reversing the Pacers is 14.6%, and the Pacers' promotion probability is 85.4%.

BXR predicts that the Knicks will have a 15.1% chance of reversing the Pacers 4-3, and the Pacers will have an 84.9% chance of advancing. The probability of the Knicks making a comeback is much higher than the predicted probability in NBA history. The Timberwolves are completely different. Polymarket predicts that the probability of the Timberwolves 4-3 reversing the Thunder is only 2.8%, and the probability of the Thunder advancing is as high as 97.2%.

BXR also predicts that the probability of the Timberwolves 4-3 reversed the Thunder is 2.3%, the probability of the Thunder advancement is 97.7%, and the probability of the Timberwolves' counterattack is also lower than the NBA's history of 4.4. Why do you think it is?

Text/Yan Xiaobai: NBA Observation